The Original and the Reversed Milankovitch Graphs comparison
This is the Reversed Milankovitch Graph:
"The modern interpretation of Milankovitch’s work is that you get an interglacial when enough energy reaches 65N latitude in Summer to melt the snow. Without the snow albedo drops and enough heat is retained to keep it warm. A glacial period starts when too little heat reaches 65N in Summer to melt the snow. Over years the snow builds up into ice sheets and the increased ice albedo keeps it cold.”
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What really happens is that you get an interglacial when enough energy reaches 65 SOUTH latitude in Southern Hemisphere Summer to accumulate the solar energy in the oceanic waters.
In our times the Southern Hemisphere’s summer COINCIDES with the earth’s PERIHELION.
That is why Earth is in a WARMING TREND PHASE now. Milankovitch had calculated his cycle in high preciseness. The only difference is:
Milankovitch Graph should be read REVERSED.
Milankovitch Graph should be read Reversed !
Milankovitch Graph should be read Reversed !
Of course climate changes.
And of course the planet's rate of rotation is almost constant.
Also Earth has a very thin atmosphere; Earth has a very small greenhouse phenomenon in its atmosphere and it doesn’t warm the planet.
The cause of climate change is not the Earth's atmosphere. The cause of climate change is orbital.
Milutin Milankovitch has explained everything 100 years ago.
The ( Ṃ ↓ ) represents the Original Milankovitch grapheme.
And the ( Ẇ ↑ ) represents the Reversed Milankovitch grapheme.
( Ṃ ↓ ) - supposedly this is the Original Milankovitch Graph. Please take notice of the dot under ( Ṃ ↓ )
The dot's position represents the present time, when Planet Earth is in Original Milankovitch Graph Minima:
The Original Milankovitch Graph shows a cooling trend.
( Ẇ ↑ ) - and this is the Reversed Milankovitch Graph. Please take notice of the dot above (Ẇ ↑ )
The dot's position represents the present time, Graph Maxima:
( Ẇ ↑ ) The Reversed Milankovitch Graph shows a warming trend.
Milankovitch had to reverse his Graph to match the instrumental data. But he didn’t have a time.
It was a critical mistake in Milankovitch’s assumptions.
Now it is time for us to make the necessary correction. 100 years have passed, Milankovitch agrees, if it is necessary, for us to make a correction.
Right now Planet Earth is in an orbital forced warming trend. And these are culmination times.
The very slow warming trend will continue for about a 1,5 millennia on. Then slowly and gradually the Global Temperatures will become cooler.
The ( Ṃ ↓ ) represents the Original Milankovitch grapheme.
And the ( Ẇ ↑ ) represents the Reversed Milankovitch grapheme.
Milankovitch Graph should be read Reversed !
The dot's position represents the present time warming trend, when Planet Earth is in Reversed Milankovitch Graph Maxima: ( Ẇ ↑ )
At present Perihelion occurs in the middle of the Southern Hemisphere summer.
At present Perihelion occurs in the middle of the Northern Hemisphere winter. Consequently at present Perihelion occurs in the middle of the Southern Hemisphere summer.
In the summer Earth's axis tilts toward sun. At Perihelion Earth receives 7% more intense sunlight than at the Aphelion.
This is because the Earth's orbit is not circular but elliptical, with the Sun located in one of the foci of the ellipse.
When we apply Stefan-Boltzmann Law we come to conclusion that at present, when Perihelion occurs in the middle of the Southern Hemisphere summer, Earth absorbs more solar energy and that leads to orbital forced warming trend.
It happens because North and South Hemispheres have an unequal distribution of land and oceanic surfaces.
The Southern Hemisphere is mostly covered with oceans (water) and the Northern Hemisphere is crowded with continents (soil).
As a result there is a major difference in each Hemisphere surface qualities. The surface is what interacts with incoming solar flux.
cp. ocean = 1 cal /gr oC
cp. land = 0,19 cal /gr oC
Let's apply the Rotating Planet Surface Solar Irradiation Absorbing-Emitting Universal Law:
Jemit = σΤe⁴/(β*N*cp)¹∕ ⁴ (W/m²)
We can see now that when insolated, the land emits more intensively IR radiation back to space than the ocean does.
It is just happening that way at present. When Southern Oceans are tilted towards sun Earth is at Perihelion (at closest to sun position).
At present more intense insolation (+7%) falls on oceanic waters. That leads to orbital forced global warming trend.
It all happens according to Reversed Milankovitch Cycle.
And it happens according to Stefan-Boltzmann Law.
And of course the average global insolation remains reasonably constant.
And Jabs = [ Φ (1-a) So /4 ] (W/m²)
What changes in the time is the Earth's surface IR radiation intensity.
That is why I say there is an orbital forced Global Warming Trend.
This is the 21.170 years Milankovitch Cycle the Precession of Equinoxes. Only the Milankovitch Graph should be read Reversed !
Axial precession is the movement of the rotational axis of Earth
What I have to complement is about the axial precession.
Axial precession is the movement of the rotational axis of Earth. According to the Milankovitch, precession has a cycle of roughly 21.170 years.
It is moving 1day every 58 years.
So we have 365 days * 58 years/day = 21.170 years
Precession doesn’t change the total amount of solar radiation that hits Earth.
But precession primarily alters the Perihelion and the Aphelion.
Overall, this increases the seasonal differences from one hemisphere to the other.
The warming trend we observe now started some 6.500 years ago. It is a very slow process. The MWP ( the Medieval Warm Period ) is a confirmation of the existence of a long warming trend.
The LIA ( the Little Ice Age ) was observed as a colder atmosphere and more snowy winters. Also the glaciers were increasing.
On the other hand oceans continued accumulating heat.
It is a very long cycle. We are observing the Reversed Milankovitch Graph culmination period. It will last about a millennia and a half and then there will be a cooling trend.
It is a culmination phase phenomenon.
It is similar to the common Solstice we observe every year.. Around Solstices the day is almost the same, only very tiny changes can be observed. It is a culmination time of a year. When day stops getting shorter and then it starts getting longer. A very slow and small changes can be observed.
The same with the 7.500 years long warming trend. It comes to its culmination now. First it will stop to get warmer, and then very slowly it will change to a cooling trend.
But as I have said it is a very long and a very slow process. It will take some 1.500 years to complete.
That is why I say there is an orbital forced Global Warming Trend.
It is the 21.170 years long Milankovitch Cycle the Precession of Equinoxes.
Only the Milankovitch Graph should be read Reversed !
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What Earth's surface does, is to still emerging from an ice age!
The Original Milankovitch Theory states:
"You get an interglacial when the Summer is warm enough to melt the snow that fell during the Winter.
You get a glacial period when there is not enough summer heat to melt the snow. Then each year the thickness of the snow increases until you have new ice sheets."
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The Reversed Milankovitch Graph states:
You get an interglacial when Winter on North Hemisphere occurs close to Earth's Perihelion. The Southern Hemisphere's vast oceanic waters are tilted towards the sun, when Earth is at its closest to the sun.
Thus, as it occurs in our era, during the North Hemisphere's warmer Winter, the very much hotter Southern Hemisphere's SUMMER oceanic waters are heavily accumulating, and that is why we observe the current Global Warming.
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Milankovitch Cycles and Glaciation
https://geol105.sitehost.iu.edu/images/gaia_chapter_4/milankovitch.htm
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Earth in our era is in a very long term continuous warming period. This warming is caused by natural orbital forcing.
It is the continuation of the MWP (Medieval Warm Period). The LIA (Little Ice Age) was a phenomenical cold because of the intensive mitigation of sea ice. During the LIA period, Earth continued accumulating solar energy, Earth continued getting warmer.
And from the current temperature data there is no question that we are firmly in a steady secular warming period.
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Every planet is subjected to its annual average surface temperature (the mean surface temperature) T (K).
The planet annual average surface temperature is a dependent on the planet's distance from sun value.
Of course it is dependent on the planet's radiative energy balance.
It is also dependent on the planet's rotational warming phenomenon.
And, in addition to all that above, the planet annual average surface temperature is a dependent on the annual planet surface temperature differentiation.
The less planet surface temperatures annually differentiated - the higher is the planet annual average surface temperature.
And the more planet surface temperatures annually differentiated - the lower is the planet annual average surface temperature.
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In our times Planet Earth is in an exceptional annual orbital pattern, which pattern (earth's orbit eccentricity, when Earth is at its closest to the sun during the North Hemisphere's winter, and it is very much close to the sun at the times of winter Solstices...)
What we witnessing in Northern Hemisphere is the summers being cooler and winters being warmer.
The opposite phenomenon, (the summers being hotter and the winters being colder) which actually takes place in Southern Hemisphere, is being smoothed bythe Southern Hemisphere's vast oceanic waters areas.
As a result, at current times Earth's annual orbital pattern creates a slow lowering the Planet Earth's the annual average surface temperature differentiation.
This exact phenomenon is what creates the observed in our era the very slow (millennia’s long) continuous (gradual) Global Warming.
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Our planet Earth is in millennials long continuous orbital forced warming pattern.
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When in warming pattern, a planet accumulates more solar energy than planet is capable to emit.
In planet's effort to emit that excessive solar energy so to establishing the radiative energy equilibrium, the planet average surface temperature rises.
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When the planetary temperature becomes higher, then, according to the Stefan-Boltzmann emission law, the planet surface becomes capable of emitting IR (infrared radiation) more intensively.
Thus the mechanism of getting rid of energy does establish onto the planet surface, a close to radiative equilibrium (energy in =energyout) state.
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The planet surface temperatures from Equator to Poles are very much differenciated.
Here it is when the nonlinearityof the Stefan-Boltzmann's emission law gets in action!
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The Polar zone's temperature rises faster, than the equatorial, or the average planet surface mean.
It is the phenomenon of Polar Temperatures Amplification.
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Due to the Stefan-Boltzmann emission law nonlinearity, the Polar areas (in order to get rid of the excessive incoming solar energy)...
The Polar areas surface temperatures rise faster - and it is observed in the melting of the ice sheet sea cover.
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https://www.cristos-vournas.com
The faster a planet rotates (n2>n1) the higher is the planet’s average (mean) temperature T↑mean:
Tmin↑→ T↑mean ← T↓max