The Original Milankovitch Cycle
On the right grapheme it is the Original Milankovitch Cycle.
According to Milankovitch Ice Ages are generally triggered by minima in high-latitude Northern Hemisphere summer insolation, enabling winter snowfall to persist through the year and therefore accumulate to build Northern Hemisphere glacial ice sheets. Similarly, times with especially intense high-latitude Northern Hemisphere summer insolation, determined by orbital changes, are thought to trigger rapid deglaciations, associated climate change and sea level rise.
But Earth cannot accumulate heat on the continents’ land masses. Earth instead accumulates heat in the oceanic waters.
The Reversed Milankovitch Cycle
Milankovitch’s main idea was that the glacial periods are ruled by planet’s movements forcing.
Here we have the grapheme of the Reversed Milankovitch cycle. The minimums in the reversed Milankovitch cycle are the maximums in the original. These two cycles, the original Milankovitch cycle and the reversed differ in time only by a half of a year. According to the reversed Milankovitch cycle there are long and very deep glacial periods and small and very short interglacial. The reversed cycle complies with the paleo geological findings. As we can see in the reversed Milankovitch cycle, we are getting now to the end of a long and a slow warming period. What we are witnessing as a Global Climate Change are the culmination moments at the end of that warming period.
The Original and the Reversed Milankovitch Cycles comparison
It is time now to have a very precise look at those graphemes.
To start with I should say that they are only tiny fragments of the entire Milankovitch Cycles. Those tiny fragments describe a relatively small period of 50.000 years back and forth.
Milankovitch's work is much more extent. It goes to almost 600.000 years away in time.
What is the most important difference in those small graphemes is the way the orbital forced climate tendency approaches the present temperature conditions on the Planet Earth.
On the Original Milankovitch Cycle the arrow approaches the year 2019 on the downward direction. (The 2019 year is at the point where the small ring intercepts the horizontal line).
It is interpreted that there is an orbital forced cooling trend, which has been overcome by the Greenhouse Effect Gasses, and the Planet Earth is warming now instead of getting cooler.
The Reversed Milankovitch Cycle offers us the exactly opposite opinion. On the Reversed Milankovitch Cycle the arrow moves to the year 2019 point on the upward direction.
This is it! The Reversed Milankovitch Cycle confirms itself.
It describes an orbital forced Global Warming trend. This orbital forced Global Warming trend is a very long and a very slow process. The Warming is happening naturally. It is a coincidence in our era for us to witness the culmination moments. Earth will continue to be at those relatively warm times for about a couple of thousand years ahead. Then, gradually, the Global Temperatures will become cooler...
At present Perihelion occurs in the middle of the Southern Hemisphere summer
At present Perihelion occurs in the middle of the Southern Hemisphere summer.
In the summer Earth's axis tilts toward sun. At Perihelion Earth receives 7% more intense sunlight than at the Aphelion.
This is because the Earth's orbit is not circular but elliptical, with the Sun located in one of the foci of the ellipse.
When we apply Stefan-Boltzmann Law we come to conclusion that at present, when Perihelion occurs in the middle of the Southern Hemisphere summer, Earth absorbs more solar energy and that leads to orbital forced warming trend.
It happens because North and South Hemispheres have an unequal distribution of land and oceanic surfaces.
The Southern Hemisphere is mostly covered with oceans (water) and the Northern Hemisphere is crowded with continents (soil).
As a result there is a major difference in each Hemisphere surface qualities. The surface is what interacts with incoming solar flux.
cp. ocean = 1 cal /gr oC
cp. land = 0,19 cal /gr oC
Let's apply the Rotating Planet Surface Solar Irradiation Absorbing-Emitting Universal Law:
Jemit = σΤe⁴/(β*N*cp)¹∕ ⁴ (W/m²)
We can see now that when insolated, the land emits more intensively IR radiation back to space than the ocean does.
It is just happening that way at present. When Southern Oceans are tilted towards sun Earth is at Perihelion (at closest to sun position).
At present more intense insolation (+7%) falls on oceanic waters. That leads to orbital forced global warming trend.
It all happens according to Reversed Milankovitch Cycle.
And it happens according to Stefan-Boltzmann Law.
And of course the average global insolation remains reasonably constant.
And
Jabs = [ Φ (1-a) So /4 ] (W/m²)
What changes in the time is the Earth's surface IR radiation intensity. What changes in time is the intensity Earth gets rid from the incoming solar energy.
That is why I say there is an orbital forced Global Warming Trend.
It is the 21.170 years Milankovitch Cycle. Only the Milankovitch Cycle should be read Reversed !
.
Milankovitch Cycle should be read Reversed !
Of course climate changes.
And of course the planet's rotational spin is almost constant.
Also Earth has a very thin atmosphere; Earth has a very small greenhouse phenomenon in its atmosphere and it doesn’t warm the planet.
The cause of climate change is not the Earth's atmosphere. The cause of climate change is orbital.
Milutin Milankovitch has explained everything 100 years ago.
The ( Ṃ ↓ ) represents the Original Milankovitch Cycle grapheme.
And the ( Ẇ ↑ ) represents the Reversed Milankovitch Cycle grapheme.
( Ṃ ↓ ) - supposedly this is the Original Milankovitch Cycle. Please take notice of the dot under ( Ṃ ↓ )
The dot's position represents the present time, when Planet Earth is in Original Milankovitch Cycle Minima:
The Original Milankovitch Cycle shows a cooling trend.
( Ẇ ↑ ) - and this is the Reversed Milankovitch cycle. Please take notice of the dot above ( Ẇ ↑ )
The dot's position represents the present time, when Planet Earth is in Reversed Milankovitch Cycle Maxima:
( Ẇ ↑ ) The Reversed Milankovitch Cycle shows a warming trend.
Milankovitch had to reverse his cycle to match the instrumental data. But he didn’t have a time.
It was a critical mistake in Milankovitch’s assumptions.
Now it is time for us to make the necessary correction. 100 years have passed, Milankovitch agrees, if it is necessary, for us to make a correction.
Right now Planet Earth is in an orbital forced warming trend. And these are culmination times.
The very slow warming trend will continue for about a 1,5 millennia on. Then slowly and gradually the Global Temperatures will become cooler.
The ( Ṃ ↓ ) represents the Original Milankovitch Cycle grapheme.
And the ( Ẇ ↑ ) represents the Reversed Milankovitch Cycle grapheme.
Milankovitch Cycle should be read Reversed !
The dot's position represents the present time warming trend, when Planet Earth is in Reversed Milankovitch Cycle Maxima: ( Ẇ ↑ ).
.
Axial precession is the movement of the rotational axis of Earth
What I have to complement is about the axial precession.
Axial precession is the movement of the rotational axis of Earth. According to the Milankovitch Cycle, precession has a cycle of roughly 21.170 years.
It is moving 1day every 58 years. So we have:
365 days * 58 years/day = 21.170 years
Precession doesn’t change the total amount of solar radiation that hits Earth. But precession primarily alters the perihelion and aphelion.
Overall, this increases the seasonal differences from one hemisphere to the other.
The warming trend we observe now started some 6.500 years ago. It is a very slow process. The MWP ( the Medieval Warm Period ) is a confirmation of the existence of a long warming trend.
The LIA ( the Little Ice Age ) was observed as a colder atmosphere and more snowy winters. Also the glaciers were increasing. On the other hand oceans continued accumulating heat.
It is a very long cycle. We are observing the Reversed Milankovitch Cycle culmination period. It will last about a millennia and half and then there will be a cooling trend.
It is a culmination phase phenomenon. It is similar to the common Solstice we observe every year.. Around Solstices the day is almost the same, only very tiny changes can be observed. It is a culmination time of a year.
When day stops getting shorter and then it starts getting longer. A very slow and small changes can be observed.
The same with the 7.500 years long warming trend. It comes to its culmination now.
First it will stop to get warmer, and then very slowly it will change to a cooling trend.
But as I have said it is a very long and a very slow process. It will take some 1.500 years to complete.
That is why I say there is an orbital forced Global Warming Trend.
It is the 21.170 years long Milankovitch Cycle.
Only the Milankovitch Cycle should be read Reversed!
.
The Earth's axis tilt towards Sun at Perihelion
The Earth's axis tilt towards Sun at Perihelion 12.000 years from now
Polar Amplification
Earth is orbiting sun in a slightly elliptical orbit.
The couple of millennia now Earth’s perihelion is close to the winter solstice of 22 Dec.
As a result the Southern Ocean is tilted towards the sun on the southern summer for some time now.
It is a 21.170 years long Milankovitch cycle.
What I did is to read the Milankovitch cycle reversed.
According to the Reversed Milankovitch cycle Earth is nearing the Reversed Milankovitch Cycle culmination period. It will last about a millennia and half and then there will be a cooling trend.
Here is an abstract from Wikipedia:
“Polar amplification is the phenomenon that any change in the net radiation balance (for example greenhouse intensification) tends to produce a larger change in temperature near the poles than the planetary average.”
So, lets highlight the definition:
“Polar amplification is the phenomenon that any change in the net radiation balance … tends to produce a larger change in temperature near the poles than the planetary average.”
Earth has a very thin atmosphere without any detectable greenhouse warming effect.
What I think is that the observed Polar amplification happens due to the orbital forced global warming trend.
The Southern Ocean during the winter solstice is tilted towards the sun, because at that time there is a summer in the Southern Hemisphere.
The Southern Hemisphere is covered with oceans more than the Northern Hemisphere.
So the Southern Hemisphere, when it is tilted towards sun at the closest to the sun orbital position (Perihelion) is capable to accumulate more solar energy, than the Northern Hemisphere did at the same position about ten millennia ago.
As a result, Earth as a whole, accumulates annually more solar energy, than Earth was accumulating about ten millennia ago.
Arctic amplification is a result of the Planet’s continuous for some millennia warming trend.
Arctic amplification narrows the gap between Tmin and Tmax – that’s right.
Earth slowly continues getting warmer. Averaged around the year Planet accumulates more energy at present phase of its orbital cycle.
This period of time Earth’s Perihelion occurs at 4th of January.
And it will take 58 years to move the Perihelion to the 5th of January.
To complete a full cycle it will take: 58 years /day * 365 days = 21.170 years.
.
Out of ICE AGE and in to ICE AGE the planet IR emission patterns
A planet may absorb on the average annually the same amount of SW solar energy, but emit a little less IR outgoing to space, like Earth in current warming phase does.
And a planet may absorb on the average annually the same amount of SW solar energy, but emit a little more IR outgoing to space, as it happens when planet ventures into a cooling phase.
.
When comparing with the Perihelion point...
When comparing with the Perihelion point, which is at January 2, the solar irradiance Earth receives now is 7% less. As a result we have at the North Hemisphere much cooler summers and much warmer winters.
In 10.000 (ten thousand) years from now, Earth's axis will be pointing at star Vega, instead of Polaris at which it points now.
So in 10.000 years the Winter Solstice will occur when Earth is in Aphelion (it happens now with Earth in Perihelion).
As a result in 10.000 years we would have at the North Hemisphere much warmer summers and much colder winters.
A shift of 7% in the Hemispheres' insolation intensity will happen. Instead of the Southern Hemisphere (as it happens now) with its vast oceans accumulative capacity... there would be a +7% stronger insolation on the North Hemisphere's plethora of continental areas.
We know continents do not accumulate heat so much effectively as oceans do, thus Earth will gradually cool down, until a New Ice Age commences!
As for the current warming phase - we receive the +7% solar energy onto Southern Hemisphere's oceans... and oceans willingly accumulate the excess solar energy...
It happens so during the current Winter Solstices, when Earth is tilted towards sun with its Southern Hemisphere's vast oceanic waters.
.
Ice age CO2 reductions coincide with an increase in ice sheet extent
“Ice age CO2 reductions coincide with an increase in ice sheet extent and therefore an increase in global albedo, and this should result in further cooling of the climate. But what actually happens is that when CO2 reaches a minimum and albedo reaches a maximum, the world rapidly warms into an interglacial. A similar effect can be seen at the peak of an interglacial, where high CO2 and low albedo results in cooling. This counterintuitive response of the climate system also remains unexplained, and so a hitherto unaccounted for agent must exist that is strong enough to counter and reverse the classical feedback mechanisms.”
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674987116300305?via%3Dihub
.
The Reversed Milankovitch cycle explains.
Milankovitch cycle predicts cooling trend. It is wrong assumption.
Planet is warmer when the southern oceans summer is at perihelion – when Earth is tilted towards sun with southern oceans.
Thus the Reversed Milankovitch cycle is what explains the Earth’s current warming.
https://www.cristos-vournas.com
The faster a planet rotates (n2>n1) the higher is the planet’s average (mean) temperature T↑mean:
Tmin↑→ T↑mean ← T↓max